Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 47¢ · $937 held · ends Nov 9

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$937.07

Combined PnL

-$11.13

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 46.5¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$747.81

Total Shares1,679

Combined PnL+$45.57

No3 traders

Total Value$189.27

Total Shares344

Combined PnL-$56.69

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MaxEntCTR	Yesavg 41.3¢	$292.43	$619.88	+$26.72	40% 23-34 (57)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 61.3¢	$362.83	$132.01	-$54.98	36% 12736-22337 (35073)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$109.08	$127.92	+$18.85	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 55.1¢	$101.46	$46.26	+$0.8	56% 3177-2515 (5692)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 59.8¢	$24	$11	-$2.52	58% 263-194 (457)

MaxEntCTR

Yes

Invested

$292.43

Value

$619.88

PnL

+$26.72

Record

40%

23-34 (57)

AJSV

Invested

$362.83

Value

$132.01

PnL

-$54.98

Record

36%

12736-22337 (35073)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.08

Value

$127.92

PnL

+$18.85

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$101.46

Value

$46.26

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

3177-2515 (5692)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$24

Value

$11

PnL

-$2.52

Record

58%

263-194 (457)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.