Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chicago Bears win the 2026 NFC North?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 24¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
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Contrarian
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$12.7K
-$808.17
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO botbotCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $13.2K | $12.4K | -$812.45 | 43% 310-408 (718) |
 probability | Noavg 74¢ | $78.49 | $211.91 | +$5.16 | 42% 1210-1656 (2866) |
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 77¢ | $16.17 | $134.81 | -$0.88 | 51% 3538-3434 (6972) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.