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Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 67%
Total Value
$15.2K
Combined PnL
$713.31
Smart Money Entry
94.9¢ → 99.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes1%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$15.2K
Total Shares15,291
Combined PnL+$714.69
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0.21
Total Shares53
Combined PnL-$1.39
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 95¢ | $14.1K | $14.8K | +$691.17 | 49% 1083-1117 (2200) |
KR Krass | Noavg 94¢ | $394.38 | $417.9 | +$23.52 | 74% 449-154 (603) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.6 | $0.21 | -$1.39 | 62% 381-233 (614) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance99.9%
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.09
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xd8a58435...797d29
Slug
will-bitcoin-dip-to-10000-by-december-31-2026-888-644-567-258-946-853-325-494-356-991