Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 98¢ · $499 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
💧
Weak
No
5
No 20%
$498.99
-$149.69
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 96.6¢ | $2.3K | $433.26 | -$150.2 | 74% 2393-862 (3255) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $37.74 | $40.71 | +$2.97 | 47% 1705-1905 (3610) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $12 | $10.35 | -$1.65 | 17% 3034-14639 (17673) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $14.19 | $10.19 | -$4 | 50% 855-865 (1720) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.3 | $4.49 | +$3.19 | 48% 1995-2156 (4151) |
viniiInvested
$2,332.25
Value
$433.26
PnL
-$150.2
Record
74%
2393-862 (3255)
Invested
$37.74
Value
$40.71
PnL
+$2.97
Record
47%
1705-1905 (3610)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$10.35
PnL
-$1.65
Record
17%
3034-14639 (17673)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$14.19
Value
$10.19
PnL
-$4
Record
50%
855-865 (1720)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
$4.49
PnL
+$3.19
Record
48%
1995-2156 (4151)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.