Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21
💧
Weak
No
5
No 60%
$2.3K
$158.33
54.7¢ → 74.5¢
+36% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Late Entry
Medium
Score 50/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $688.79 | $973.87 | +$285.08 | 73% 2877-1049 (3926) |
M2 M2sx92kljs42 | Noavg 53.4¢ | $432.5 | $602.9 | +$170.4 | 72% 334-127 (461) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $826.44 | $545.33 | -$281.11 | 73% 365-137 (502) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 74¢ | $141.95 | $141.95 | +$0.96 | 57% 14637-10979 (25616) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $68 | $51 | -$17 | 64% 2103-1202 (3305) |
Tenebrus7Invested
$688.79
Value
$973.87
PnL
+$285.08
Record
73%
2877-1049 (3926)
Invested
$432.5
Value
$602.9
PnL
+$170.4
Record
72%
334-127 (461)
KimchiCapitalCTRInvested
$826.44
Value
$545.33
PnL
-$281.11
Record
73%
365-137 (502)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$141.95
Value
$141.95
PnL
+$0.96
Record
57%
14637-10979 (25616)
Invested
$68
Value
$51
PnL
-$17
Record
64%
2103-1202 (3305)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.