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Will Ann Kao win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 87¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 29
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
Yes
Consensus Traders
3
Yes 67%
Total Value
$10.8K
Combined PnL
$129.01
Smart Money Entry
87.6¢ → 87¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes87%
No13%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$9.4K
Total Shares10,792
Combined PnL-$62.63
No1 trader
Total Value$1.4K
Total Shares10,646
Combined PnL+$191.64
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 87.9¢ | $8.5K | $8.4K | -$85.43 | 57% 14639-10984 (25623) |
KI KiernanMeisterCTR | Noavg 13¢ | $2.03 | $1.4K | +$191.64 | 52% 974-898 (1872) |
 december | Yesavg 85¢ | $969.04 | $991.84 | +$22.8 | 83% 129-26 (155) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance88.4%
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$13.09
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
113.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x1e7ae690...abf242
Slug
will-ann-kao-win-the-next-hsinchu-city-mayor-election-20260813135716401