Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 15¢ · $331 held · ends Dec 31, 2027
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Contrarian
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$330.78
$5.74
10.3¢ → 15.2¢
+47% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $159.41 | $176.8 | -$26.28 | 51% 104-98 (202) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $31.56 | $111.84 | +$62.64 | 36% 12736-22337 (35073) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $29.05 | $32.12 | -$30.62 | 17% 3034-14639 (17673) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $10.97 | $10.02 | +$0 | 58% 263-194 (457) |
Invested
$159.41
Value
$176.8
PnL
-$26.28
Record
51%
104-98 (202)
Invested
$31.56
Value
$111.84
PnL
+$62.64
Record
36%
12736-22337 (35073)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$29.05
Value
$32.12
PnL
-$30.62
Record
17%
3034-14639 (17673)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$10.02
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
263-194 (457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.