Back to Markets
Trump on $250 bill this year?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $352 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
2
No 50%
Total Value
$352.4
Combined PnL
-$7.35
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes3%
No97%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$340.95
Total Shares350
Combined PnL-$0.95
Yes1 trader
Total Value$11.45
Total Shares449
Combined PnL-$6.4
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 97.4¢ | $334.82 | $340.95 | -$0.95 | 80% 10078-2569 (12647) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $14.6 | $11.45 | -$6.4 | 48% 1995-2156 (4151) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance98.5%
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$1.51
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
101.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xef9efe2c...5b50ad
Slug
trump-on-250-bill-this-year