Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (75%) · Up at 1.0¢ · $391 held · ended Oct 25
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Contrarian
Up
4
Up 75%
$390.85
-$197.88
23.7¢ → 1¢
-96% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Down 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 26.8¢ | $474.62 | $299.35 | -$175.27 | 52% 5509-5111 (10620) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $88.2 | $89.1 | +$0.9 | 93% 20107-1616 (21723) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $25.64 | $2.34 | -$23.3 | 68% 40651-18757 (59408) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.22 | $0.05 | -$0.22 | 53% 11684-10256 (21940) |
Invested
$474.62
Value
$299.35
PnL
-$175.27
Record
52%
5509-5111 (10620)
Invested
$88.2
Value
$89.1
PnL
+$0.9
Record
93%
20107-1616 (21723)
Invested
$25.64
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$23.3
Record
68%
40651-18757 (59408)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
11684-10256 (21940)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.