Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (74%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Oct 25
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Contrarian
Up
1
Up 100%
1 arb excluded
$90.72
-$1.91
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Down 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 70.7¢ | $53.15 | $58.86 | +$5.72 | 52% 5509-5111 (10620) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 70.7¢ | $36.1 | $37.79 | +$1.69 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21¢ | $17.05 | $21.08 | +$4.03 | |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Upavg 31.5¢ | $33.77 | $31.86 | -$1.91 | 68% 40651-18757 (59408) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.