Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (99%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Solana Up or Down - October 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 1.0¢ · $74 held · ended Oct 25
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Contrarian
Up
3
Up 67%
$73.56
-$13.43
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $41.92 | $50.61 | +$8.69 | 68% 40651-18757 (59408) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.3¢ | $44.04 | $22.74 | -$21.3 | 52% 5509-5111 (10620) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.82 | $0.21 | -$0.82 | 53% 11684-10256 (21940) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.