Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Internazionale Milano, while the market favors ACF Fiorentina (51%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Internazionale Milano (60%) · FC Internazionale Milano at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
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Contrarian
FC Internazionale Milano
5
FC Internazionale Milano 60%
$1.2K
-$3.41
49.9¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors ACF Fiorentina 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Late Entry
Low
Score 10/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on FC Internazionale Milano. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO Jokerxing7CTR | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 50¢ | $740.15 | $732.76 | -$7.39 | 39% 42-65 (107) |
CA Cannae | ACF Fiorentinaavg 50¢ | $292.73 | $295.66 | +$2.93 | 53% 13501-11963 (25464) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 49¢ | $73.79 | $73.79 | +$0.75 | 58% 31054-22396 (53450) |
 HRTrading<$100 | ACF Fiorentinaavg 50¢ | $40.15 | $40.55 | +$0.4 | 60% 1146-775 (1921) |
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 50¢ | $10 | $9.8 | -$0.1 | 37% 149-253 (402) |
Invested
$740.15
Value
$732.76
PnL
-$7.39
Record
39%
42-65 (107)
Invested
$292.73
Value
$295.66
PnL
+$2.93
Record
53%
13501-11963 (25464)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$73.79
Value
$73.79
PnL
+$0.75
Record
58%
31054-22396 (53450)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$40.15
Value
$40.55
PnL
+$0.4
Record
60%
1146-775 (1921)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
37%
149-253 (402)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.