Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
St Mirren FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Sep 5
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Contrarian
Under
1
Under 100%
$0
-$306.28
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SY SyrrokCTR | Underavg 1.1¢ | $306.28 | — | -$306.28 | 61% 1463-919 (2382) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.