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Papertrade FDV above $200M one day after launch?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 57¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 67%
Total Value
$9.3K
Combined PnL
$31.06
Smart Money Entry
69.2¢ → 57.5¢
-17% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes43%
No57%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$5.7K
Total Shares8,540
Combined PnL+$69.28
Yes1 trader
Total Value$3.6K
Total Shares8,435
Combined PnL-$38.22
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 68¢ | $4.5K | $4.6K | +$127.96 | 65% 659-353 (1012) |
 gatonekkiCTR | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $1.4K | $3.6K | -$38.22 | 63% 22-13 (35) |
OD odsowner | Noavg 73¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$58.68 | 50% 84-84 (168) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance60.2%
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$66.11
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
166.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x82aeb3c5...c48cc1
Slug
papertrade-fdv-above-200m-one-day-after-launch