No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No change (60%) · No change at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27

No change98¢Hike 25 bps2¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

No change

Consensus Traders

No change 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$6.29

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 98.5¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

No change

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

No change98%

Hike 25 bps2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No change3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,304

Combined PnL+$97.05

Hike 25 bps2 traders

Total Value$17.45

Total Shares1,126

Combined PnL-$103.34

No change — 60%Hike 25 bps — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Late Entry

High

Score 90/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No change. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo change 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpHike 25 bps 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo change 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo change 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No change 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	No changeavg 89.3¢	$999.9	$1.0K	+$12.86	57% 14639-10984 (25623)
NO nonkenny90	No changeavg 86¢	$165.98	$190.01	+$24.03	89% 4101-523 (4624)
88 881112<$100	No changeavg 25¢	$20.48	$80.64	+$60.16	38% 542-903 (1445)
MP mpstire-lutuwarCTR	Hike 25 bpsavg 14.2¢	$101.42	$11.07	-$90.35	86% 134-22 (156)
20 20260601CTR<$100	Hike 25 bpsavg 3.2¢	$6.4	$6.38	-$12.99	57% 81-61 (142)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

No change

Invested

$999.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$12.86

Record

57%

14639-10984 (25623)

nonkenny90

No change

Invested

$165.98

Value

$190.01

PnL

+$24.03

Record

89%

4101-523 (4624)

881112<$100

No change

Invested

$20.48

Value

$80.64

PnL

+$60.16

Record

38%

542-903 (1445)

mpstire-lutuwarCTR

Hike 25 bps

Invested

$101.42

Value

$11.07

PnL

-$90.35

Record

86%

134-22 (156)

20260601CTR<$100

Hike 25 bps

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$12.99

Record

57%

81-61 (142)

Smart Money Signal

No change

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

504h old

Late Entry

High

Score 90/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No change. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo change 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpHike 25 bps 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo change 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo change 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No change 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No change wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.