Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Wild (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (83%) · Kraken at 41¢ · $43K held · ended Oct 25
🔄
Contrarian
Kraken
6
Kraken 83%
$43.2K
$6.2K
60¢ → 40.5¢
-33% since entry · 5 traders
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Wild 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Late Entry
Medium
Score 40/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Wildavg 39.9¢ | $8.5K | $15.7K | +$7.2K | 52% 96-89 (185) |
DO Donkey14CTR | Krakenavg 60¢ | $15.0K | $14.8K | -$250 | 49% 324-331 (655) |
BO Bozos14CTR | Krakenavg 60¢ | $7.5K | $7.8K | +$312.5 | 49% 128-132 (260) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Krakenavg 60.3¢ | $4.2K | $4.1K | $-1.0K | 55% 6231-5012 (11243) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Krakenavg 60¢ | $600 | $590 | -$10 | 69% 4170-1875 (6045) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Krakenavg 60¢ | $202.45 | $199.07 | -$3.37 | 58% 31054-22396 (53450) |
Invested
$8,526.63
Value
$15.7K
PnL
+$7.2K
Record
52%
96-89 (185)
Invested
$15,000
Value
$14.8K
PnL
-$250
Record
49%
324-331 (655)
Invested
$7,500
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$312.5
Record
49%
128-132 (260)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$4,220
Value
$4.1K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
55%
6231-5012 (11243)
Invested
$600
Value
$590
PnL
-$10
Record
69%
4170-1875 (6045)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$202.45
Value
$199.07
PnL
-$3.37
Record
58%
31054-22396 (53450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.