Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (80%) · Nuggets at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
💧
Weak
Nuggets
5
Nuggets 80%
$5.1K
$-2.5K
42.8¢ → 98¢
+129% since entry · 4 traders
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Late Entry
Low
Score 10/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Nuggets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Nuggetsavg 42.3¢ | $3.1K | $3.3K | $-1.7K | 55% 11295-9229 (20524) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Pelicansavg 59.9¢ | $2.1K | $1.4K | -$677.76 | 53% 6109-5458 (11567) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Nuggetsavg 45.1¢ | $265.8 | $286.25 | -$114.13 | 46% 251-289 (540) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Nuggetsavg 45¢ | $93.72 | $91.7 | -$48.91 | 60% 1146-775 (1921) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Nuggetsavg 82.4¢ | $20.12 | $22.4 | +$2.28 | 54% 13405-11284 (24689) |
Invested
$3,138.04
Value
$3.3K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
55%
11295-9229 (20524)
Invested
$2,095.67
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$677.76
Record
53%
6109-5458 (11567)
Invested
$265.8
Value
$286.25
PnL
-$114.13
Record
46%
251-289 (540)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$93.72
Value
$91.7
PnL
-$48.91
Record
60%
1146-775 (1921)
Invested
$20.12
Value
$22.4
PnL
+$2.28
Record
54%
13405-11284 (24689)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.