Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 223.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 42¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$623.95

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 41.5¢

-21% since entry · 4 traders

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,898

Combined PnL+$617.41

Over7 traders

Total Value$530.94

Total Shares1,189

Combined PnL+$6.54

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Underavg 52¢	$961.63	$1.5K	+$559.75	52% 5150-4742 (9892)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$470.9	$573.94	-$6.03	46% 251-289 (540)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$291.26	$296.86	+$109.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$283.26	$277.08	-$115.25
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 53¢	$353.27	$353.27	-$0	58% 31054-22396 (53450)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Underavg 53¢	$132.3	$190.75	+$58.46	54% 523-445 (968)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 46.3¢	$191.98	$182.6	-$9.38	53% 6109-5458 (11567)
TO torta.tech	Overavg 33¢	$97.02	$138.18	+$41.16	75% 5895-1984 (7879)
TA takeormake	Overavg 52¢	$105.55	$89.31	-$16.24	55% 2836-2349 (5185)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 46¢	$50.14	$51.23	+$1.09	65% 2610-1401 (4011)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 43.9¢	$33.88	$34.65	+$0.77	60% 1146-775 (1921)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$28.89	$28.09	-$0.8	54% 13405-11284 (24689)
HI hithitfar<$100	Overavg 43¢	$40.85	$26.6	-$14.25	58% 399-289 (688)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Overavg 33.9¢	$4.98	$8.37	+$3.39	61% 5300-3405 (8705)

NooseracCTR

Under

Invested

$961.63

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$559.75

Record

52%

5150-4742 (9892)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$470.9

Value

$573.94

PnL

-$6.03

Record

46%

251-289 (540)

Both legs:

Under$291.2652¢+$109.22

Over$283.2648¢-$115.25

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$353.27

Value

$353.27

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

31054-22396 (53450)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Under

Invested

$132.3

Value

$190.75

PnL

+$58.46

Record

54%

523-445 (968)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$191.98

Value

$182.6

PnL

-$9.38

Record

53%

6109-5458 (11567)

torta.tech

Over

Invested

$97.02

Value

$138.18

PnL

+$41.16

Record

75%

5895-1984 (7879)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$105.55

Value

$89.31

PnL

-$16.24

Record

55%

2836-2349 (5185)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$50.14

Value

$51.23

PnL

+$1.09

Record

65%

2610-1401 (4011)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$33.88

Value

$34.65

PnL

+$0.77

Record

60%

1146-775 (1921)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.89

Value

$28.09

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

13405-11284 (24689)

hithitfar<$100

Over

Invested

$40.85

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$14.25

Record

58%

399-289 (688)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Over

Invested

$4.98

Value

$8.37

PnL

+$3.39

Record

61%

5300-3405 (8705)

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.