Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Suns (51%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Suns (-7.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (50%) · Warriors at 49¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Suns51¢Warriors49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$31.8

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 49¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Suns51%

Warriors49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors4 traders

Total Value$700.52

Total Shares1,293

Combined PnL+$96.24

Suns4 traders

Total Value$344.94

Total Shares792

Combined PnL-$64.45

Warriors — 50%Suns — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 20/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (5 on Warriors) disagree here.

whaleWarriors 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Warriorsavg 50.2¢	$7.1K	$6.9K	-$187.86	55% 11295-9229 (20524)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 52.3¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$147.86
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50.2¢	$3.6K	$3.2K	-$335.72
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Warriorsavg 50.6¢	$569.51	$638.96	+$69.45	46% 251-289 (540)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 50.6¢	$422.96	$380.59	+$28.73
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 45.9¢	$217.65	$258.37	+$40.72
VP VPenguinCTR	Warriorsavg 41¢	$336.21	$426.42	+$90.2	44% 747-945 (1692)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Warriorsavg 57.3¢	$230.43	$237.18	+$6.75	53% 6109-5458 (11567)
RN1	Sunsavg 59¢	$216.3	$172.2	-$44.1	55% 42737-35083 (77820)
NA NatoAlfista	Sunsavg 59¢	$152.22	$123.84	-$28.38	65% 2610-1401 (4011)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Sunsavg 51¢	$30.52	$38.5	+$7.98	54% 228-191 (419)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 43.2¢	$28.5	$34.32	-$1.11	54% 13405-11284 (24689)
HRTrading<$100	Sunsavg 51.7¢	$10.35	$10.4	+$0.05	60% 1146-775 (1921)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Warriorsavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.6	+$0.4	58% 3137-2249 (5386)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$7,094.83

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$187.86

Record

55%

11295-9229 (20524)

Both legs:

Suns$3,535.1152.3¢+$147.86

Warriors$3,559.7250.2¢-$335.72

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$569.51

Value

$638.96

PnL

+$69.45

Record

46%

251-289 (540)

Both legs:

Warriors$422.9650.6¢+$28.73

Suns$217.6545.9¢+$40.72

VPenguinCTR

Warriors

Invested

$336.21

Value

$426.42

PnL

+$90.2

Record

44%

747-945 (1692)

justaluckydudeCTR

Warriors

Invested

$230.43

Value

$237.18

PnL

+$6.75

Record

53%

6109-5458 (11567)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$216.3

Value

$172.2

PnL

-$44.1

Record

55%

42737-35083 (77820)

NatoAlfista

Suns

Invested

$152.22

Value

$123.84

PnL

-$28.38

Record

65%

2610-1401 (4011)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Suns

Invested

$30.52

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$7.98

Record

54%

228-191 (419)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$28.5

Value

$34.32

PnL

-$1.11

Record

54%

13405-11284 (24689)

HRTrading<$100

Suns

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

60%

1146-775 (1921)

RLWGCTR<$100

Warriors

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

3137-2249 (5386)

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 20/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (5 on Warriors) disagree here.

whaleWarriors 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrWarriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.