Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Austin FC end in a draw?
Resolved No. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$358.02
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 77.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$357.56 | 68% 30394-14619 (45013) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Noavg 66.4¢ | $190.82 | $215.76 | +$24.95 | 53% 11949-10754 (22703) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.4¢ | $143.21 | $215.76 | +$72.56 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 19.2¢ | $47.61 | — | -$47.61 | |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $125.31 | $67.32 | -$57.99 | 51% 6338-6107 (12445) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $99.71 | — | -$99.71 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 38¢ | $25.6 | $67.32 | +$41.72 | |
MA manoamano<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $8.64 | $14.17 | +$5.52 | 70% 379-164 (543) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $4.6 | — | -$4.6 | 52% 5447-5039 (10486) |
RO Rock.San<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $2.26 | $2.28 | +$0.02 | 90% 6863-769 (7632) |
RE retarbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $11.5 | — | -$0.48 | 50% 2962-2915 (5877) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 8543-8531 (17074) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 13484-11954 (25438) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 15978-14517 (30495) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 1633-1161 (2794) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 16037-11692 (27729) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 1146-775 (1921) |
Invested
$1,218.19
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$357.56
Record
68%
30394-14619 (45013)
Invested
$190.82
Value
$215.76
PnL
+$24.95
Record
53%
11949-10754 (22703)
Both legs:
Invested
$125.31
Value
$67.32
PnL
-$57.99
Record
51%
6338-6107 (12445)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.64
Value
$14.17
PnL
+$5.52
Record
70%
379-164 (543)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$4.6
Value
—
PnL
-$4.6
Record
52%
5447-5039 (10486)
Invested
$2.26
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
90%
6863-769 (7632)
Invested
$11.5
Value
—
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
2962-2915 (5877)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
8543-8531 (17074)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
13484-11954 (25438)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
15978-14517 (30495)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
1633-1161 (2794)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
16037-11692 (27729)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1146-775 (1921)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
No — $1.6K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
foooool
ARBArbitrage — excluded
manoamano
No — $14.17
tradecraft
CTRYes — $0
Rock.San
No — $2.28
retarb
CTRYes — $0
SnakeBall
CTRYes — $0
Cannae
No — $0
GoalLineGhost
No — $0