Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 3.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 59¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 25

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.1K

Combined PnL

-$230

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 58.5¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares18,383

Combined PnL-$980.34

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,223

Combined PnL+$750.33

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 38.4¢	$7.2K	$8.0K	+$822.08	52% 15978-14517 (30495)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38.4¢	$3.7K	$5.3K	+$1.6K
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.6¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$766.21
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 59.5¢	$7.6K	$7.5K	-$110.29	68% 30394-14619 (45013)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 76.1¢	$3.9K	$3.1K	-$859.45	50% 8565-8540 (17105)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10.59	51% 962-929 (1891)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 17.1¢	$492.48	$1.2K	+$704.38	58% 1633-1161 (2794)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 31.9¢	$59.32	$77.19	+$17.87	53% 6109-5458 (11567)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Overavg 22.7¢	$34	$62.25	+$28.25	47% 3521-3952 (7473)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$1.41	$1.24	-$0.17	60% 1146-775 (1921)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,169.89

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$822.08

Record

52%

15978-14517 (30495)

Both legs:

Over$3,671.5238.4¢+$1.6K

Under$3,498.3757.6¢-$766.21

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$7,613.05

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$110.29

Record

68%

30394-14619 (45013)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$3,930.2

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$859.45

Record

50%

8565-8540 (17105)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.59

Record

51%

962-929 (1891)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$492.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$704.38

Record

58%

1633-1161 (2794)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.32

Value

$77.19

PnL

+$17.87

Record

53%

6109-5458 (11567)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34

Value

$62.25

PnL

+$28.25

Record

47%

3521-3952 (7473)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.17

Record

60%

1146-775 (1921)

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.