Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$34.76

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares15,097

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares13,041

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 55.4¢	$5.3K	$5.8K	+$477.68	68% 30394-14619 (45013)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 57.3¢	$4.1K	$4.8K	+$667.68	50% 8565-8540 (17105)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 40.5¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$355.27	52% 15978-14517 (30495)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 48.3¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$682.18	53% 6109-5458 (11567)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 35.4¢	$783.86	$455.01	-$26.12	58% 1633-1161 (2794)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 37¢	$18.5	$29.5	+$11	47% 3521-3952 (7473)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 43.1¢	$228.2	$10.04	-$58.02	75% 2295-755 (3050)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$5,292.73

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$477.68

Record

68%

30394-14619 (45013)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$4,140.15

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$667.68

Record

50%

8565-8540 (17105)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$3,032.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$355.27

Record

52%

15978-14517 (30495)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$2,208.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$682.18

Record

53%

6109-5458 (11567)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$783.86

Value

$455.01

PnL

-$26.12

Record

58%

1633-1161 (2794)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$18.5

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$11

Record

47%

3521-3952 (7473)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$228.2

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$58.02

Record

75%

2295-755 (3050)

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.