Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold St. Louis City SC, while the market favors Real Salt Lake (99%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold St. Louis City SC (50%) · St. Louis City SC at 0.6¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Real Salt Lake>99¢St. Louis City SC<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

St. Louis City SC

Consensus Traders

St. Louis City SC 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 0.6¢

-99% since entry · 5 traders

Smart Money Signal

St. Louis City SC

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Real Salt Lake 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Salt Lake99%

St. Louis City SC1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

St. Louis City SC5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,716

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Real Salt Lake5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares4,784

Combined PnL$-1.6K

St. Louis City SC — 50%Real Salt Lake — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Real Salt Lakeavg 36.9¢	$3.5K	$2.8K	-$666.34	52% 15978-14517 (30495)
└ Real Salt Lake leg	Real Salt Lakeavg 36.9¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$659.95
└ St. Louis City SC leg	St. Louis City SCavg 73.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$6.39
UP UpTheBluesCTR	St. Louis City SCavg 55.5¢	$3.7K	$1.4K	$-2.3K	68% 30394-14619 (45013)
JU justaluckydude	Real Salt Lakeavg 60.7¢	$2.8K	$1.2K	$-1.6K	53% 6109-5458 (11567)
SN SnakeBallCTR	St. Louis City SCavg 55.8¢	$398.47	$524.42	+$125.95	50% 8565-8540 (17105)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR	St. Louis City SCavg 39¢	$58.5	$110.25	+$51.75	47% 3521-3952 (7473)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	St. Louis City SCavg 78.4¢	$94.86	$88.9	-$5.96	54% 13405-11284 (24689)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Real Salt Lakeavg 24¢	$42.36	$46.77	+$4.41	58% 1633-1161 (2794)
HRTradingCTR<$100	St. Louis City SCavg 63.4¢	$12.69	$14.7	+$2.01	60% 1146-775 (1921)
VeryLucky888<$100	Real Salt Lakeavg 26¢	$7.03	$7.16	+$0.14	58% 31054-22396 (53450)
US User7429<$100	Real Salt Lakeavg 49¢	$9.8	$5.3	-$4.5	57% 5699-4304 (10003)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Real Salt Lakeavg 42¢	$3.23	$2.04	-$1.19	63% 22274-13133 (35407)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Real Salt Lake

Invested

$3,493.94

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$666.34

Record

52%

15978-14517 (30495)

Both legs:

Real Salt Lake$2,346.4736.9¢-$659.95

St. Louis City SC$1,147.4773.9¢-$6.39

UpTheBluesCTR

St. Louis City SC

Invested

$3,740.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

68%

30394-14619 (45013)

justaluckydude

Real Salt Lake

Invested

$2,764.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

6109-5458 (11567)

SnakeBallCTR

St. Louis City SC

Invested

$398.47

Value

$524.42

PnL

+$125.95

Record

50%

8565-8540 (17105)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR

St. Louis City SC

Invested

$58.5

Value

$110.25

PnL

+$51.75

Record

47%

3521-3952 (7473)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

St. Louis City SC

Invested

$94.86

Value

$88.9

PnL

-$5.96

Record

54%

13405-11284 (24689)

NordhavenCap<$100

Real Salt Lake

Invested

$42.36

Value

$46.77

PnL

+$4.41

Record

58%

1633-1161 (2794)

HRTradingCTR<$100

St. Louis City SC

Invested

$12.69

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$2.01

Record

60%

1146-775 (1921)

VeryLucky888<$100

Real Salt Lake

Invested

$7.03

Value

$7.16

PnL

+$0.14

Record

58%

31054-22396 (53450)

User7429<$100

Real Salt Lake

Invested

$9.8

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$4.5

Record

57%

5699-4304 (10003)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Real Salt Lake

Invested

$3.23

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$1.19

Record

63%

22274-13133 (35407)

Smart Money Signal

St. Louis City SC

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Real Salt Lake 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that St. Louis City SC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5856.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

5956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.