Will Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis City SC end in a draw?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔥

Strong

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$349.37

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 99.6¢

+25% since entry · 9 traders

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,921

Combined PnL+$315.59

Yes2 traders

Total Value$99.89

Total Shares659

Combined PnL+$33.78

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88.8¢	$1.1K	$963.22	-$111.78	68% 30394-14619 (45013)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 71.3¢	$1.5K	$953.44	+$202.57	58% 1633-1161 (2794)
LonnieHawkins	Noavg 78.4¢	$2.4K	$548.17	+$168.24	52% 1541-1447 (2988)
HRTrading	Noavg 78¢	$400.81	$362.73	+$50.22	60% 1146-775 (1921)
CA Cannae	Noavg 75.6¢	$171.19	$187.94	+$16.75	53% 13501-11963 (25464)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.8¢	$183.86	$156.04	-$27.82	50% 8565-8540 (17105)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 81.9¢	$132.87	$134.64	+$1.77	52% 15978-14517 (30495)
RO Rocko33	Noavg 75¢	$107.76	$119.25	+$11.49	65% 840-460 (1300)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 83.2¢	$106.62	$110.77	+$4.15	53% 11949-10754 (22703)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 22.4¢	$85.23	$98.45	+$3.59	54% 13405-11284 (24689)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.4¢	$47.99	$57.78	+$0.16
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$37.24	$40.67	+$3.43
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$27.03	$84.42	+$57.39	59% 13531-9406 (22937)
RI RichieRicherCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$39.08	$15.47	-$23.61	53% 538-485 (1023)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,075

Value

$963.22

PnL

-$111.78

Record

68%

30394-14619 (45013)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$1,483.03

Value

$953.44

PnL

+$202.57

Record

58%

1633-1161 (2794)

LonnieHawkins

Invested

$2,407.49

Value

$548.17

PnL

+$168.24

Record

52%

1541-1447 (2988)

HRTrading

Invested

$400.81

Value

$362.73

PnL

+$50.22

Record

60%

1146-775 (1921)

Cannae

Invested

$171.19

Value

$187.94

PnL

+$16.75

Record

53%

13501-11963 (25464)

SnakeBall

Invested

$183.86

Value

$156.04

PnL

-$27.82

Record

50%

8565-8540 (17105)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$132.87

Value

$134.64

PnL

+$1.77

Record

52%

15978-14517 (30495)

Rocko33

Invested

$107.76

Value

$119.25

PnL

+$11.49

Record

65%

840-460 (1300)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$106.62

Value

$110.77

PnL

+$4.15

Record

53%

11949-10754 (22703)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.23

Value

$98.45

PnL

+$3.59

Record

54%

13405-11284 (24689)

Both legs:

Yes$47.9922.4¢+$0.16

No$37.2476¢+$3.43

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$84.42

PnL

+$57.39

Record

59%

13531-9406 (22937)

RichieRicherCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.08

Value

$15.47

PnL

-$23.61

Record

53%

538-485 (1023)

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Late Entry

Medium

Score 55/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.