Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 50¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 50¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares12,031

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over2 traders

Total Value$71.4

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$11.5

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 40.6¢	$4.9K	$6.0K	+$1.1K	55% 11295-9229 (20524)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$175.14	$146.8	-$28.34	55% 42737-35083 (77820)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.7¢	$129.79	$95.43	-$34.36
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.4¢	$45.35	$51.36	+$6.02
TO torta.tech<$100	Overavg 57¢	$57	$68	+$11	75% 5869-1977 (7846)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 46¢	$54.97	$38.24	-$16.73	65% 2610-1401 (4011)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Overavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.4	+$0.5	61% 5298-3405 (8703)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 28¢	$0.78	$1.08	+$0.31	47% 3521-3952 (7473)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$4,924.1

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

11295-9229 (20524)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$175.14

Value

$146.8

PnL

-$28.34

Record

55%

42737-35083 (77820)

Both legs:

Over$129.7953.7¢-$34.36

Under$45.3553.4¢+$6.02

torta.tech<$100

Over

Invested

$57

Value

$68

PnL

+$11

Record

75%

5869-1977 (7846)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$54.97

Value

$38.24

PnL

-$16.73

Record

65%

2610-1401 (4011)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Over

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.5

Record

61%

5298-3405 (8703)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$0.78

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.31

Record

47%

3521-3952 (7473)

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.