Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 70¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
💧
Weak
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$7.0K
$606.44
54.8¢ → 69.5¢
+27% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$210.24 | 55% 11295-9229 (20524) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45¢ | $1.8K | $2.2K | +$379.07 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$168.83 | |
 RN1 | Underavg 56.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.7K | +$610.84 | 55% 42737-35083 (77820) |
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 48.4¢ | $395.79 | $445.28 | +$49.49 | 53% 6109-5458 (11567) |
SH shoemanhereCTR | Overavg 55.2¢ | $280 | $230.6 | -$49.4 | 63% 4431-2634 (7065) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $50 | $45.5 | -$4.5 | 58% 8293-6032 (14325) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $1.08 | $1.09 | +$0.01 | 60% 1146-775 (1921) |
Invested
$3,350.21
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$210.24
Record
55%
11295-9229 (20524)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$2,118.74
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$610.84
Record
55%
42737-35083 (77820)
Invested
$395.79
Value
$445.28
PnL
+$49.49
Record
53%
6109-5458 (11567)
Invested
$280
Value
$230.6
PnL
-$49.4
Record
63%
4431-2634 (7065)
Invested
$50
Value
$45.5
PnL
-$4.5
Record
58%
8293-6032 (14325)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.01
Record
60%
1146-775 (1921)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.