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Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 67%
Total Value
$2.8K
Combined PnL
$100.39
Smart Money Entry
90.8¢ → 94.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes6%
No95%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$2.8K
Total Shares2,916
Combined PnL+$117.16
Yes1 trader
Total Value$31.16
Total Shares567
Combined PnL-$16.77
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$66.9 | 77% 1330-396 (1726) |
 Talophex | Noavg 91.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$50.26 | 91% 892-92 (984) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $47.93 | $31.16 | -$16.77 | 60% 966-638 (1604) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance95.7%
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$4.48
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
104.5
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xbec8b2df...732240
Slug
michael-saylor-federally-charged-by-december-31-2026-20260625210239195