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Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $7K held · ends Mar 31, 2027
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 100%
Total Value
$6.8K
Combined PnL
$121.52
Smart Money Entry
91.7¢ → 91.8¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes8%
No92%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$6.8K
Total Shares7,373
Combined PnL+$121.52
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 91.5¢ | $6.1K | $6.2K | +$123.2 | 66% 1090-559 (1649) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.6¢ | $573.88 | $562.99 | -$2 | 80% 10078-2569 (12647) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $23.01 | $22.96 | +$0.31 | 88% 2063-287 (2350) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance93.1%
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$7.37
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
107.4
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x9f66a23c...8300b6
Slug
major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026