Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Real Sociedad de Fútbol 3 - 1 Levante UD?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 7.0¢ · $295 held · ends Oct 25
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Contrarian
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$295.46
-$76.3
8¢ → 7¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $322.72 | $242.04 | -$80.68 | 61% 4327-2785 (7112) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $52.44 | $53.01 | +$0.57 | 54% 13611-11436 (25047) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $345.35 | $0.41 | +$3.81 | 58% 31291-22609 (53900) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.