Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚡
Medium
No
5
No 100%
$6.1K
$2.6K
52.8¢ → 94.5¢
+79% since entry · 5 traders
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
4696h old
Late Entry
High
Score 90/100
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxEnt | Noavg 66.8¢ | $2.2K | $3.2K | +$932.68 | 40% 23-34 (57) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 56.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$619.96 | 51% 364-348 (712) |
TR troim | Noavg 14¢ | $140 | $945 | +$805 | 36% 367-653 (1020) |
 2B9S | Noavg 3.8¢ | $9.76 | $261.37 | +$251.62 | 17% 3034-14639 (17673) |
MU muddyrc<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $30.36 | $68.27 | +$37.92 | 51% 223-214 (437) |
Invested
$2,245.33
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$932.68
Record
40%
23-34 (57)
XieGuangKunInvested
$1,049.68
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$619.96
Record
51%
364-348 (712)
Invested
$140
Value
$945
PnL
+$805
Record
36%
367-653 (1020)
2B9SInvested
$9.76
Value
$261.37
PnL
+$251.62
Record
17%
3034-14639 (17673)
Invested
$30.36
Value
$68.27
PnL
+$37.92
Record
51%
223-214 (437)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.