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Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
2
No 50%
Total Value
$7.4K
Combined PnL
$299.13
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes1%
No99%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$7.4K
Total Shares7,482
Combined PnL+$339.87
Yes1 trader
Total Value$5.71
Total Shares571
Combined PnL-$40.74
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 95.6¢ | $3.9K | $7.4K | +$339.87 | 77% 1330-396 (1726) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $46.45 | $5.71 | -$40.74 | 50% 356-354 (710) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance99.9%
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$0.10
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
100.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x80b45d98...f04baf
Slug
kimi-k4-released-by-october-31-2026-20260722184115884