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José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
2
No 100%
Total Value
$5.3K
Combined PnL
$665.97
Smart Money Entry
84.3¢ → 95¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes5%
No95%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$5.3K
Total Shares5,626
Combined PnL+$665.97
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Basquetipster | Noavg 84.2¢ | $4.1K | $5.3K | +$664.3 | 70% 1543-669 (2212) |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $58.53 | $60.2 | +$1.66 | 86% 2370-397 (2767) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance96.1%
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$4.01
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
104.0
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x3fcd367d...9c3829
Slug
jos-luis-rodrguez-zapatero-sentenced-to-prison