Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bibi, while the market favors Opp. (63%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Bibi (50%) · Bibi at 37¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28
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Contrarian
Bibi
2
Bibi 50%
$7.1K
-$767.77
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Opp. 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960CTR | Bibiavg 46.7¢ | $7.3K | $6.5K | -$817.77 | 60% 141-93 (234) |
 BiDiFakePolls | Opp.avg 53¢ | $530 | $580 | +$50 | 58% 156-113 (269) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.