Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 25?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 34¢ · $471 held · ends Oct 25
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Contrarian
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$470.9
$42.51
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $267.58 | $309.03 | +$41.45 | 48% 480-525 (1005) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Noavg 65.6¢ | $160.81 | $161.87 | +$1.06 | 54% 467-405 (872) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.