Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 25?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
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Contrarian
No
3
No 33%
$1.5K
$62.92
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Noavg 50.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$55.34 | 51% 1548-1509 (3057) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f | Yesavg 57.6¢ | $152.11 | $152.94 | +$0.83 | 54% 467-404 (871) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $59.87 | $66.62 | +$6.75 | 57% 104-79 (183) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.