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Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on October 25?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 65¢ · $116 held · ends Oct 25
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
Yes
Consensus Traders
2
Yes 50%
Total Value
$115.9
Combined PnL
$16.75
Smart Money Signal
Yes
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes65%
No35%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes1 trader
Total Value$111.1
Total Shares174
Combined PnL+$16.62
No1 trader
Total Value$4.8
Total Shares14
Combined PnL+$0.13
Yes — 50%No — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 62.4¢ | $94.48 | $111.1 | +$16.62 | 56% 105-82 (187) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.3¢ | $7.51 | $4.8 | +$0.13 | 65% 6454-3411 (9865) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance66.8%
64.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$49.70
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
149.7
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0xc863f7e2...a83d09
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-october-25-2026-22c