Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on October 25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 44¢ · $223 held · ends Oct 25
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Contrarian
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$223.46
$59.24
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 12.2¢ | $33.45 | $134.22 | +$9.01 | 56% 105-82 (187) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.2¢ | $26.41 | $76.51 | +$50.1 | 56% 3177-2515 (5692) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $43.33 | $12.73 | +$0.13 | 65% 6454-3411 (9865) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.