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Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $174 held · ends Oct 25
SIGNAL
💧
Weak
No
Consensus Traders
3
No 67%
Total Value
$173.88
Combined PnL
-$22.68
Smart Money Entry
88.4¢ → 94.9¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes5%
No95%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$134.48
Total Shares139
Combined PnL+$8.16
Yes1 trader
Total Value$39.41
Total Shares773
Combined PnL-$30.84
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 88¢ | $105.01 | $115.13 | +$7.02 | 56% 105-82 (187) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $70.24 | $39.41 | -$30.84 | 53% 504-456 (960) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $18.21 | $19.34 | +$1.13 | 54% 467-405 (872) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance96.1%
94.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$4.06
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
104.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x8594b746...de154e
Slug
highest-temperature-in-munich-on-october-25-2026-15c