Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 25?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 31¢ · $402 held · ends Oct 25
🔄
Contrarian
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$402.2
$54.31
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 29.9¢ | $264.17 | $309.78 | +$45.6 | 53% 504-456 (960) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $85.72 | $92.42 | +$8.71 | 56% 105-82 (187) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.