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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $8K held · ends Dec 1
SIGNAL
⚡
Medium
No
Consensus Traders
4
No 75%
Total Value
$7.6K
Combined PnL
$27.36
Smart Money Entry
96.4¢ → 96.9¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes3%
No97%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$7.5K
Total Shares7,767
Combined PnL+$32.01
Yes1 trader
Total Value$98.66
Total Shares3,132
Combined PnL-$4.65
No — 75%Yes — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GoriIIa | Noavg 96.7¢ | $6.6K | $6.4K | +$9.95 | 72% 218-83 (301) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 94.5¢ | $686.34 | $703.57 | +$17.23 | 72% 3435-1318 (4753) |
TH thoodr | Noavg 95.7¢ | $401.94 | $406.56 | +$4.83 | 96% 529-23 (552) |
 LiquidatedDegenCTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $103.31 | $98.66 | -$4.65 | 59% 1028-713 (1741) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance98.0%
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$2.09
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
102.1
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x38bb0395...1dc0f1
Slug
friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-november-30-2026