Fetterman leaves the Democrats by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚡
Medium
No
5
No 80%
$3.9K
$83.12
87.8¢ → 91¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
957h old
Late Entry
High
Score 90/100
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FU Fulgurator | Noavg 88¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$117.72 | 91% 40-4 (44) |
 bernardbulletinCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $13.2 | $192.66 | -$44.12 | 68% 906-429 (1335) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 89.1¢ | $182.8 | $182.1 | -$0.7 | 57% 14639-10984 (25623) |
SI simpleman<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $34 | $36.42 | +$2.42 | 47% 448-510 (958) |
88 881112<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $18.21 | +$7.81 | 38% 542-903 (1445) |
Invested
$3,396.27
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$117.72
Record
91%
40-4 (44)
bernardbulletinCTRInvested
$13.2
Value
$192.66
PnL
-$44.12
Record
68%
906-429 (1335)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$182.8
Value
$182.1
PnL
-$0.7
Record
57%
14639-10984 (25623)
Invested
$34
Value
$36.42
PnL
+$2.42
Record
47%
448-510 (958)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$18.21
PnL
+$7.81
Record
38%
542-903 (1445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.