Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 63¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
💧
Weak
No
4
No 50%
$11.2K
$274.69
62.3¢ → 63¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Noavg 62.3¢ | $10.5K | $10.8K | +$282.65 | 52% 4133-3868 (8001) |
MA MaxEntCTR | Yesavg 37.1¢ | $304.58 | $295.43 | -$9.16 | 40% 23-34 (57) |
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $60 | $61 | +$4 | 70% 398-171 (569) |
LA Lasting-DessertCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $10.59 | $7.68 | -$2.8 | 90% 562-65 (627) |
Invested
$10,519.27
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$282.65
Record
52%
4133-3868 (8001)
Invested
$304.58
Value
$295.43
PnL
-$9.16
Record
40%
23-34 (57)
Invested
$60
Value
$61
PnL
+$4
Record
70%
398-171 (569)
Invested
$10.59
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$2.8
Record
90%
562-65 (627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.