Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (95%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 5.0¢ · $187 held · ended Oct 25
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Contrarian
Up
3
Up 67%
$186.97
-$0.45
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 52.4¢ | $115.77 | $180.62 | +$64.85 | 52% 5509-5111 (10620) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.7¢ | $30 | $3.36 | -$26.64 | 56% 14756-11783 (26539) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 64.4¢ | $38.65 | $3 | -$38.65 | 58% 6381-4563 (10944) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.