Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (93%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 7.0¢ · $136 held · ended Oct 25
🔄
Contrarian
Up
2
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$136.19
-$20.13
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.5¢ | $165.27 | $119.82 | -$45.45 | 52% 5509-5111 (10620) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.1¢ | $42.48 | $89.68 | +$47.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.5¢ | $122.79 | $30.14 | -$92.65 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.6¢ | $31.7 | $9.72 | -$21.98 | 56% 14756-11783 (26539) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $4.8 | $6.65 | +$1.85 | 68% 40651-18757 (59408) |
Invested
$165.27
Value
$119.82
PnL
-$45.45
Record
52%
5509-5111 (10620)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.7
Value
$9.72
PnL
-$21.98
Record
56%
14756-11783 (26539)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$1.85
Record
68%
40651-18757 (59408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.