Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 99¢ · $217 held · ended Oct 25

Up1¢Down99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

Total Value

$216.78

Combined PnL

-$26.26

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 99¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$215.06

Total Shares217

Combined PnL+$10.36

Up1 trader

Total Value$1.72

Total Shares172

Combined PnL-$36.62

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.4¢	$114.12	$114.84	+$0.72	93% 20107-1616 (21723)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$76.13	$79.28	+$3.15	52% 5509-5111 (10620)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$14.45	$20.94	+$6.49	56% 14756-11783 (26539)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 22.3¢	$38.34	$1.72	-$36.62	53% 7200-6407 (13607)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$114.12

Value

$114.84

PnL

+$0.72

Record

93%

20107-1616 (21723)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$76.13

Value

$79.28

PnL

+$3.15

Record

52%

5509-5111 (10620)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$14.45

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$6.49

Record

56%

14756-11783 (26539)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$38.34

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$36.62

Record

53%

7200-6407 (13607)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.