Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 2.5
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ended Sep 8
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Contrarian
Under
1
Under 100%
$11.0K
$-14.2K
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA bawsCTR | Underavg 49.8¢ | $14.2K | $11.0K | $-14.2K | 44% 20-25 (45) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.