Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Liquid (71%) · Liquid at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

FUT Esports44¢Liquid56¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚡

Medium

Liquid

Consensus Traders

Liquid 71%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$0.52

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FUT Esports44%

Liquid56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liquid5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,936

Combined PnL+$0.19

FUT Esports2 traders

Total Value$457.89

Total Shares1,065

Combined PnL+$0.32

Liquid — 71%FUT Esports — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FUT Esports) and the top 1000 (4 on Liquid) disagree here.

whaleFUT Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLiquid 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLiquid 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFUT Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liquid 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
teardropsaidmyname	Liquidavg 57¢	$540.29	$530.81	-$4.74	52% 400-368 (768)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	FUT Esportsavg 43¢	$429.98	$429.98	-$0	32% 5584-11640 (17224)
VI vibing123	Liquidavg 56¢	$394.33	$397.86	+$3.52	58% 1273-911 (2184)
HU humbleboy<$100	Liquidavg 55¢	$91.63	$94.13	+$2.5	55% 398-332 (730)
JI jiafan<$100	Liquidavg 57¢	$57	$56	-$1	61% 1293-819 (2112)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	FUT Esportsavg 43¢	$27.92	$27.92	+$0.32	65% 1519-811 (2330)
AJ AJSV<$100	Liquidavg 57¢	$10	$9.91	-$0.09	36% 12736-22337 (35073)

teardropsaidmyname

Liquid

Invested

$540.29

Value

$530.81

PnL

-$4.74

Record

52%

400-368 (768)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

FUT Esports

Invested

$429.98

Value

$429.98

PnL

-$0

Record

32%

5584-11640 (17224)

vibing123

Liquid

Invested

$394.33

Value

$397.86

PnL

+$3.52

Record

58%

1273-911 (2184)

humbleboy<$100

Liquid

Invested

$91.63

Value

$94.13

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

398-332 (730)

jiafan<$100

Liquid

Invested

$57

Value

$56

PnL

-$1

Record

61%

1293-819 (2112)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

FUT Esports

Invested

$27.92

Value

$27.92

PnL

+$0.32

Record

65%

1519-811 (2330)

AJSV<$100

Liquid

Invested

$10

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

36%

12736-22337 (35073)

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Late Entry

Low

Score 10/100

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FUT Esports) and the top 1000 (4 on Liquid) disagree here.

whaleFUT Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpLiquid 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLiquid 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedFUT Esports 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Liquid 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.