Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold North Carolina, while the market favors Syracuse (58%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: North Carolina (-7.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold North Carolina (50%) · North Carolina at 42¢ · $641 held · ended Oct 24
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Contrarian
North Carolina
2
North Carolina 50%
$641.49
$49.03
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Syracuse 58%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | North Carolinaavg 52¢ | $517.47 | $488.49 | -$28.97 | 58% 30927-22305 (53232) |
 RN1 | Syracuseavg 25¢ | $75 | $153 | +$78 | 55% 42593-34948 (77541) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.