Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold New Mexico, while the market favors North Dakota State (67%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: New Mexico (-6.5)

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (13%) · New Mexico at 34¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

New Mexico34¢North Dakota State66¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔄

Contrarian

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 13%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$77.08

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors North Dakota State 67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico34%

North Dakota State67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico1 trader

Total Value$902.7

Total Shares2,075

Combined PnL-$217.89

North Dakota State7 traders

Total Value$383.18

Total Shares678

Combined PnL+$140.82

New Mexico — 13%North Dakota State — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	New Mexicoavg 54¢	$1.1K	$902.7	-$217.89	45% 970-1164 (2134)
JU justaluckydude	North Dakota Stateavg 49.1¢	$114.01	$131.08	+$17.07	53% 6396-5735 (12131)
AV averagejoetraders	North Dakota Stateavg 25¢	$45.85	$103.81	+$57.97	56% 455-355 (810)
AD adururu<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 27¢	$21.34	$44.66	+$23.32	55% 284-231 (515)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 27¢	$19.34	$40.47	+$21.13	53% 207-180 (387)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 43¢	$22.93	$30.13	+$7.2	55% 11679-9574 (21253)
PA pauleta23<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 26¢	$10	$21.73	+$11.73	71% 17250-6966 (24216)
RL RLWG<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 44.5¢	$8.9	$11.3	+$2.4	58% 3174-2274 (5448)

primmCTR

New Mexico

Invested

$1,120.59

Value

$902.7

PnL

-$217.89

Record

45%

970-1164 (2134)

justaluckydude

North Dakota State

Invested

$114.01

Value

$131.08

PnL

+$17.07

Record

53%

6396-5735 (12131)

averagejoetraders

North Dakota State

Invested

$45.85

Value

$103.81

PnL

+$57.97

Record

56%

455-355 (810)

adururu<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$21.34

Value

$44.66

PnL

+$23.32

Record

55%

284-231 (515)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$19.34

Value

$40.47

PnL

+$21.13

Record

53%

207-180 (387)

HomeRunHazard<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$22.93

Value

$30.13

PnL

+$7.2

Record

55%

11679-9574 (21253)

pauleta23<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$10

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$11.73

Record

71%

17250-6966 (24216)

RLWG<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$8.9

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$2.4

Record

58%

3174-2274 (5448)

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors North Dakota State 67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.