Spread: New Mexico (-5.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold New Mexico (50%) · New Mexico at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

New Mexico75¢North Dakota State25¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

💧

Weak

New Mexico

Consensus Traders

New Mexico 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$136.99

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 74.5¢

+52% since entry · 3 traders

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

New Mexico75%

North Dakota State26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

New Mexico3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,478

Combined PnL-$36.36

North Dakota State3 traders

Total Value$929.64

Total Shares2,027

Combined PnL-$100.63

New Mexico — 50%North Dakota State — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ArielFilipino	New Mexicoavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$35.47	59% 70-48 (118)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	North Dakota Stateavg 49.6¢	$877.58	$758.58	-$119	55% 11295-9229 (20524)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	New Mexicoavg 58.2¢	$395.85	$367.44	-$28.4	53% 6109-5458 (11567)
└ New Mexico leg	New Mexicoavg 58.2¢	$225.65	$219.06	-$6.58
└ North Dakota State leg	North Dakota Stateavg 49.9¢	$170.2	$148.38	-$21.82
VeryLucky888CTR	North Dakota Stateavg 51¢	$510	$154.26	+$18.53	58% 31054-22396 (53450)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	New Mexicoavg 48¢	$35.16	$35.16	-$0.37	65% 2597-1387 (3984)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	North Dakota Stateavg 53¢	$16.96	$16.8	-$0.16	75% 2553-839 (3392)
PR primm<$100	New Mexicoavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.38	-$0.52	45% 962-1162 (2124)

ArielFilipino

New Mexico

Invested

$1,175.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$35.47

Record

59%

70-48 (118)

HomeRunHazardCTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$877.58

Value

$758.58

PnL

-$119

Record

55%

11295-9229 (20524)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$395.85

Value

$367.44

PnL

-$28.4

Record

53%

6109-5458 (11567)

Both legs:

New Mexico$225.6558.2¢-$6.58

North Dakota State$170.249.9¢-$21.82

VeryLucky888CTR

North Dakota State

Invested

$510

Value

$154.26

PnL

+$18.53

Record

58%

31054-22396 (53450)

NatoAlfista<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$35.16

Value

$35.16

PnL

-$0.37

Record

65%

2597-1387 (3984)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

North Dakota State

Invested

$16.96

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.16

Record

75%

2553-839 (3392)

primm<$100

New Mexico

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.52

Record

45%

962-1162 (2124)

Smart Money Signal

New Mexico

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that New Mexico wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.